Outbreak Epidemiology Disease Simulator

Simulation of disease outbreaks using a toy SEIRD-style model with vaccination and waning immunity. Parameter sets are illustrative, not calibrated for policy decisions. Use as a learning sandbox to explore how changing transmission, duration, mortality, and vaccination assumptions alters dynamics.
Startup Parameters
Live parameters
R₀ (theoretical)= · Rt (approx)=
Timeline
t=0 days
Viewing: Live
0 0 / 0 days
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Incidence, Prevalence & % Vaccinated

Incidence: new infections per time step (S→E). Prevalence: infectious individuals at each time. Blue line: percent of the population ever vaccinated.

SEIRD Compartments

Tracks susceptible, exposed, infectious, immune/recovered, and dead over time.

Epidemiologic Summary at Viewed Time
Uses tracked incident infections (S→E) for cumulative incidence, incidence rate, and CFR.
Context
Time (t) Days since start
Total population (N) Initial individuals
Alive at t N − deaths(t)
Incidence & Risk
Cumulative incidence (risk) Incident infections(0→t) / at-risk at start (N − I₀ − immune₀)
Incidence risk Same as cumulative incidence over [0, t]
Average risk per day Cumulative incidence / time interval
Incidence rate Incident infections(0→t) / person-time at risk
Prevalence & Severity
Point prevalence (infectious) Infectious(t) / alive(t)
Ever infected (unique, simulated) Individuals with ≥1 S→E since start
Case fatality risk Deaths(t) / ever infected (incident)